Wk18: Market Forecast

27 Apr

Market movers in the week to come are…
· Tues: Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET
· Weds: GDP 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM ET
· Thurs: Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET
· Fri: ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET

Also note…
· Paul Volcker Speaks Thursday at 3:45 PM ET
· Tim Geithner Speaks Friday at 8:00 AM ET
· James Bullard Speaks Friday at 9:45 AM ET

We remain cautiously bullish. Staying delta neutral is a great way to remain hedged in times like these. The key is to balance relatively strong stocks with relatively weak stocks (relative in terms of the broad market), thus allowing the highest probability for both the position and the hedge to be profitable.
Watch for the top line figures (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, and Russell) to continue moving between their rising channels. As we said before the NASDAQ tends to lead the market so watch for a break of the NASDAQ’s channel to be a leading indicator. For now the upper and lower ranges can be looked at as daily support and resistant areas. Keep in mind the weekly’s are at a heavy congestion zone.

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