Archive | Reflection RSS feed for this section

What Do You Find Most Helpful?

8 Dec

Is it watch lists your looking for, strategies, videos, written content? We’d like to know what it is you find most useful.

Please leave your comments below…

Let the Games Resume

9 Sep

The time has finally come for the big guns to resume trading after the summer holiday. Now is the time of year when the big hedge funds and top traders begin ramping up their position size. What does this mean for you and me or any other traders pushing around less than 100 lots on the ES, more participation, a more technical market, and more follow through.

Futures Trader: Tomorrow is rollover meaning the volume for the contract month will shift from the current expiration month September (U) to December (Z). Make sure to update your charts and execution platforms accordingly.

Options Trader: Since tomorrow is rollover this means next week is Options Ex. Any new positions should be taken in the months of October and later unless your strategy involves selling premium.

Stock Trader: More volume equals ease of entry and exit for those smaller less liquid stocks.

Our short term outlook is a move down to 1072 at which point we will either bounce and move higher, or sell off to new swing lows and potentially beyond. It’s time to ramp up the trading into the end of the year, so get ready for a wild ride.

Daily Reflection: 09.01

1 Sep

For what was a very big move up today you may notice it was rather “slow.” This is known as a gap and go day where the market gaps up and then moves sideways the rest of the day. This keeps the majority of market participants out of the market. The only way to catch these moves if you have not positioned yourself in the pre-market or overnight sessions is to be long or short stock, option, or overnight futures positions. Find a balance between intraday and overnight setups that suits you.

Today we saw a close on the Trin of .25 and while this is bullish for the day, tomorrows actions will dictate the likelihood of a sustained rally, or decline. If we fail to sell off to some degree tomorrow and instead rally, then the markets are in for a longer term sustained rally. We have lots of news tomorrow including Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Chain Store Sales, and Bernanke Speaking so expect a wild morning.

Daily Reflection: 08.23

23 Aug

Well that rally was short lived. We were immediately sold into on the open at the daily short level of 1080 on the S&P. The target on this trade is 1053 and there’s no reason we can’t go there tomorrow on the Existing Home Sales report. Regardless, now is a great time to be hedged.
If you are flat, then a 70/30 bearish/bullish weight to your positions would set you up nicely to take advantage of a violent down more, or steady up move. The key here is to balance the portfolio in a way that you can sleep at night (if you are holding overnight positions) and allow you to think clearly throughout the trading day. If you are sweating over a position, chances are you are positioned to large.

Daily Reflection: 08.11

12 Aug

Look out below! We have now clearly broken trend line support, where land nobody knows. Well, not quite. An inverted head and shoulders could potentially be setting up with the left shoulder trading in June, Head in July, and right shoulder forming in August. Regardless, the VIX has jumped back into the mid 20s and the sense of fear and uncertainty is back in the markets (if it ever left to begin with).

Daily Reflection: 08.10

11 Aug

This week is going to get ugly so hang on. If you don’t already have it, grab yourself some downside protection expecting for the worse. As of late good news has lead to down moves in the market and bad news to up moves. Today’s Fed announcement was far from good news. The market is a forward looking instrument.

Daily Reflection: 08.09

10 Aug

The FOMC Meeting Announcement tomorrow is likely to cause a whipsaw around 1:15 CST and the time leading up to it. No trading will take place tomorrow from 1:00 PM to 1:30 PM, at least on our end. No sense in getting chopped up or impulse trading any sort of news. It’s never worth it.

Daily Reflection: 08.06

7 Aug

A slow week to say the least. Today’s Jobless Claims # added a little volatility to the markets, but overall we continue with the sideways action. We bounced off trend line support today and this candle will be used for the bullish/bearish line in the sand, bullish above, bearish below.