Archive | May, 2010

Wk21: Market Recap

31 May

“Sell in May and go away” holds true for investors once more as heavy selling continued last week, the biggest monthly loss since February of 2009. Volume was well above average on this past months selling and with all the news overseas, investors are shaken.

Why do we care about the “investors” if we are short term traders? Investors are the ones that move the market on a month to month basis, while certain day trading and high frequency firms have the power to move the markets intraday, the longer term trend is established by the longer timeframe investor.
As short term traders, the first thing we want to do when starting a new day, week, or month, is to identify what trend we are currently in on the longer timeframes and work our way down to the timeframe in which we trade.

Wk22: Market Forecast

31 May

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers
This week is sure to shed some light on the next longer term move. If we continue to sell off, massive panic could ensue, however I do not believe this will be the case. It would make sense that we see 1125 on the S&P, at least before we see 1040 again. This would be a great opportunity to add some swing shorts and take profits on longs. Below are the pivot levels for the week and month.
Our line in the sand for the week will be $1122 bullish above, bearish below, meaning if we break above this level, we will look to double top on the S&P, if we come up to 1122 and fall back down we will look to a target of $1005 on the S&P, yikes.

Wk22: Watchlist

31 May

These are some of the stocks we’re long and short going into this week. We will follow up in the week with some additional names to establish new positions in.

Bearish: DIA, GRMN, PBR

Daily Reflection: 05.27

28 May

Let’s not load the boat long just yet. Grabbing a few shorts as we inch higher is a smart play as we continue to see lighter volume on the rallies. Tomorrow we should see some decent trading in the morning then a very slow afternoon session as trader’s head out early for a 3-day weekend.

Wk21: Watchlist

26 May

Longs: ABX, GG, NEM (Same sector), AKAM, DTV, CMG, DAL, SNDK, NFLX, VCI
Shorts: GRMN, LEN

Daily Reflection: 05.25

25 May

Have we hit a bottom? Today’s price action sure seems like it. We opened the day at -140:1 breadth and closed at 1:1 grinding higher all day. The market is heavily extended to the downside and has held support at the 2010 lows. When we see a daily hammer candle pattern (on the SPX) as large we’ve seen today, it is common for us to gap higher the following day. If this does occur, we will be looking to add to long positions and enter new positions at a pullback to tomorrow’s gap fill of 1073 on the ES.

Daily Reflection: 05.24

25 May

With a VIX near the 40s, we are expecting a lot of volatility this week. A lot of news announcements can act as catalysts, not to mention the situation with the EU. We remain delta neutral.

Wk21: Market Forecast

24 May

Many good nuggets of information can be found in this weeks daily reflection posts. This week we are expecting some sort of bounce. News announcements can be found here and include GDP on Thursday. Volatility remains high so be prepared form continued large intraday swings. We are expecting volatility to remain high through the summer. Volume remains higher on the down weeks and lighter on the up weeks.