Archive | December, 2009

The Hanging Man Reversal

30 Dec

Monday’s SPY chart produced a candlestick pattern called the hanging man. This is a bearish pattern. To some, Monday’s candle may look like a hammer (a bullish signal), it is the positioning of the candle (at the top of the rally) that makes it a bearish pattern.

The hanging man alone does not initiate a sell or short signal. Tuesday’s price action, closing below the body of Monday does however confirm this bear signal (see the write-up on candlesticks).

While the past two weeks have produced light volume, we have a potential pullback to the prior resistance (now new support). If we are to make a new high this pattern would have failed, therefore our stop would be placed just above the highs for short positions.

Wk52: Market Forecast

27 Dec

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers

Last week of 2009!

Expect a light volume week as traders are typically on holiday during the period between Christmas and New Years. Low volume equals sharper, more vicious swings on the moves that do take place as there is less liquidity in the markets. Consumer confidence could shake things up a little on Tuesday; otherwise have a good week and focus on improving yourself for 2010.

Happy New Year!

Screen Setup & Excel Spreadsheets

24 Dec

Below is a quick video that outlines my screen setups along with some of the excel spreadsheets I use for intraday trading.

End of Year Homework

22 Dec

As the end of the year rolls around, volume tends to diminish as traders go on holiday. Now is a great time to look back across the year and reflect on things you have accomplished, set goals for 2010, and improve your trading as a whole.

Below are some things you can do as the New Year rolls around to improve your trading

Review your current year goals and evaluate your over/under.
Create new goals: Push your limits, get you out of your comfort zone.
Flip through your notebooks and highlight key points.
Review the years p/l and commission reports.
Make updates and changes to your current trading plan and system.
Analyze your performance.
  (see calculations page in Creating a Trading Plan presentation)
Revamp your notebooks, excel spreadsheets, and word documents.
Any and all of these tasks can be done anytime thought the year, but it is most important to complete them around this time as often times traders forget that reflection is a crucial part of a traders developing success.
Happy Holidays & Happy Trading!

Wk51: Market Forecast

21 Dec

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers

Shortened week this week. The markets are closed Friday with a 1:00 PM EST close on Thursday. We are watching for a breakout higher, or a break below the tail of Friday’s hammer. Those two points should produce some sort of follow thru. Otherwise it looks like we will be waiting till January to see any directional moves. Stay tuned for some year end homework ideas.

Market Higher?

17 Dec

While we have been bouncing between roughly S&P 1085 and 1115, many would be looking to short this last move, however with such a powerhouse week of news this sideways movement seems quite bullish. The list of stocks making new 52-wk highs each day continues to be extensive. If we break $1116.25 on the S&P I would be anticipating a spike (at least intraday) in the markets.
This has been a very difficult intraday trading environment and the holidays it even more difficult to judge price action due to the lacking volume. We are however, looking towards a bullish 2009 close. If we break $1085 to the downside and continue falling with large body candles on the daily’s we will shift our bias. Video Interviews

16 Dec

Below are a series of short interviews talking with Trader Tim

1. The Importance of Setting Clear Goals
2. The Intra-day Market Sessions
3. Balancing Personal Time with Your Trading
4. Developing Trading Rules

Nov09 Recap

14 Dec

November began on the up and up with a quick rally forming a higher low on the daily chart. However, the second half of the month has been nothing but chop. Looking at the monthly chart, we broke above the inverted hammer which was formed right at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement. The declining volume on the move up is not promising for the bulls. Over the long term we would be looking for some sort of sizeable pullback perhaps over the first quarter of 2010 before putting in a higher low on the monthly’s and moving higher.