Archive | August, 2009

The Top is Here!

26 Aug

Well, for the short term anyways… The two bearish candlestick patterns on the daily chart of the S&P and across the top line board look to be a telling sign that a pullback is in store, all we need is a catalyst. Look for a quick and vicious move back down to $1000. Of course, if the market likes Thursday’s GDP # and we do happen to move above $1038, we will be buying with both hands as bears’ stops will be triggered initiating a rapped move to the upside.

Wk33: Market Recap

24 Aug

Monday’s gap down was short lived as the bulls took over once again. As we move higher week after week, we continue to harp on the Fibonacci levels and targeted support and resistance. The S&P pulled right back to the 38.2% Retracement Monday before moving higher.

The Fibo 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% are the most commonly talked about areas, as these tend to act as the strongest resistance points when drawing a retracement. Fibonacci lines can also be looked at using extensions. A 121.7% and 161.8% retracements can be used as price targets in breakouts.

Wk34: Market Forecast

24 Aug

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers
· Tues: S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:00 AM ET
· Tues: Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET
· Weds: Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
· Weds: EIA Petroleum Status 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: GDP 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Fri: Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET
· Fri: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

It’s easy to be bullish in this market environment. Buying pullbacks is certainly the thought on everyone’s mind. That being said, the bears do have a valid argument, that being the widening triangle forming on the top-line figures. This coming week is heavy on the economic news so stay on your toes and remember rule #1 PRESERVE YOUR CAPITAL!

We are looking for a break of the trend line in the top-line figures to the upside, but are hedged for a pullback.

Wk34: Stocks to Watch

24 Aug

We are watching for stocks that are not too overextended in this market, yet breaking out. Preserving capital for the next few weeks as big money traders begin to flow back into the markets. No blog next week.

Las Vegas Traders Expo

20 Aug

November 18-21 will be the Las Vegas Traders Expo, held at the Mandalay Bay Resort. I will be a guest speaker talking about what it takes to become a successful trader and how to build a solid trading plan. Registration is Free and it will be a fun and educational experience!

Wk32: Market Recap

17 Aug

Week 32 put in lighter volume trading and formed a doji on the weekly bar, however the more we move sideways here the more of a bullish bias we will take. Sideways action after a vertical move higher forms a bull flag formation (a bullish chart pattern). While, not much has changed from week 31, the sideways action creates a base of support here which if broken to the upside should send stocks higher.

On the weekly chart of the S&P the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages are turning slightly higher. Keep in mind the down trend line across the lower highs of ‘07 and ’08.

We remain at the Fibonacci 38.2% Retracement level on the S&P500 and the NASDAQ is approaching its 50% retracement level. Volume should begin to pick up soon as the summer comes to an end and big money traders come back from holiday.

Wk33: Market Forecast

17 Aug

In the week ahead look for these news announcements to act as potential market movers
· Mon: Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET
· Mon: Housing Market Index 1:00 PM ET
· Tues: Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET
· Tues: Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
· Weds: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
· Thurs: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
· Thurs: EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
· Fri: Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

OPTIONS EXPIRY FRIDAY!

Ben Bernanke Speaks at 10:00 AM ET on Friday (8/21) about the year’s crisis.

Next week watch for a break of 1020 or 980 on the S&P as those are the current support and resistance levels. If we break lower look to retrace back to at least the 980 level, if not further to the $945 area. If we break higher, the 50% retracement would be our target with a price of $1,121 on the S&P.

Wk33: Stocks to Watch

17 Aug

Watch for stocks that are relatively strong and relatively week to the NASDAQ this week. Once we break in one direction or the other, the relatively weak stocks should tank and the relatively strong stocks should spike.